Across the last six seasons, 80 clubs have been promoted into the Big Five European leagues. Forty-seven survived their first season back. Thirty-three went straight back down. The aggregate survival rate is 58.75 per cent.
That headline number hides the structural differences between the leagues. The Premier League is the harshest league for promoted sides. Ligue 1 is the most forgiving. La Liga and the Bundesliga are similar. Serie A sits in the middle.
This piece is the data behind those numbers, and what they say about how each league absorbs new arrivals.
The headline numbers
| League | Seasons | Promoted sides | Survived first season | Survival rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 1 | 6 | 14 | 10 | 71.4% |
| La Liga | 6 | 18 | 12 | 66.7% |
| Bundesliga | 6 | 12 | 8 | 66.7% |
| Serie A | 6 | 18 | 10 | 55.6% |
| Premier League | 6 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% |
| Total | 6 | 80 | 47 | 58.75% |
The Bundesliga promotes only two sides per season because the league has 18 teams. The other four leagues promote three. Ligue 1 promoted only two in 2019-20 and 2020-21 because of the COVID-disrupted seasons, then contracted to 18 teams from 2023-24 onward, which means only two promoted per season since.
If you normalise for the number of promoted sides per league per season, the Premier League still has the lowest survival rate. Per-promoted-side, the rate is roughly the same across the four 20-team leagues. The Premier League’s harshness is structural, not a counting artefact.
The Premier League graveyard
The Premier League’s 38.9 per cent survival rate is the most striking number in the data. Seven promoted sides survived out of eighteen. Six promoted sides in a row went down across 2023-24 and 2024-25.
The pattern is structural. The middle of the Premier League table is the deepest in Europe. Eight or nine sides are usually separated by goal difference. Any promoted side that loses four or five matches early is in the relegation conversation by November. The promoted sides that survive are the ones whose squads hold up under the FA Cup and EFL Cup fixture load. Most do not.
Across the six-season window, only two promoted sides finished in the top half: Leeds United in 9th in 2020-21 and Fulham in 10th in 2022-23. Both are exceptions that confirm the rule.
Ligue 1 is the most forgiving
Ligue 1’s 71.4 per cent survival rate is the highest of the five leagues. Three structural reasons explain the gap.
The Ligue 1 promotion race is determined by fewer sides. Ligue 2 promotes only two automatic sides plus one promotion-playoff winner. The promoted clubs arrive as the strongest sides in their division, not as the second- or third-best.
The Ligue 1 relegation picture is gentler. Before the contraction, three teams went down from a 20-team league. Since the contraction to 18 teams in 2023-24, only two teams go down and one more goes through a playoff. The promoted sides need fewer points to survive.
The Ligue 1 fixture calendar is lighter. No EFL Cup equivalent. Coupe de France matches are usually against lower-division sides and rarely reach the latter rounds for newly promoted clubs. The promoted sides do not face the squad-rotation pressure of the Premier League or La Liga.
The 71.4 per cent is partly a counting artefact. Ligue 1 only promoted 14 sides across six seasons, partly because of the COVID disruptions and the contraction. With more promoted sides, the rate would probably drift closer to 60 to 65 per cent. But the structural advantages are real.
La Liga and the Bundesliga tie
La Liga and the Bundesliga both land at 66.7 per cent survival across the six seasons. The two leagues share a structural feature: a clear top-of-table order, a compressed middle, and a small group of sides at risk of relegation.
In La Liga, the promoted sides that survive tend to be the ones who establish defensive shape early. Mallorca in 2020-21 finished 16th with 39 points. Girona in 2021-22 finished 10th with 49 points. Almería in 2021-22 finished 17th with 41 points. The promoted sides that go down, like Huesca in 2019-20 or Valladolid in 2021-22, usually lack the defensive structure to grind out enough draws.
In the Bundesliga, the promotion race is the toughest in the Big Five. Only two sides go up. The two promoted sides usually come from a tight 2. Bundesliga race. Their squads are usually strong enough to handle the Bundesliga fixture list, which only has 34 matchdays. The promoted sides that go down, like Greuther Fürth in 2021-22 or Darmstadt in 2023-24, usually have a points-per-match pace below 0.7.
The Bundesliga also has the relegation playoff. The 16th-placed team plays a two-leg tie against the third-placed 2. Bundesliga side. The promoted sides that finish 16th, like VfB Stuttgart in 2022-23 and 1. FC Heidenheim in 2024-25, often survive the playoff. The promoted sides that finish 17th usually go straight down.
Serie A sits in the middle
Serie A’s 55.6 per cent survival rate is the lowest of the four 20-team leagues. The pattern is partly structural. Serie A has the highest draw rate of the Big Five, roughly 28 per cent across the last six seasons. The promoted sides that survive are the ones who can grind out draws. The promoted sides that go down usually lose the matches they should draw.
The promoted Serie A sides that survive tend to have a clear defensive identity. Salernitana in 2021-22 finished 17th with 31 points, surviving on the final day. Spezia in 2020-21 finished 15th with 39 points. Both sides were tactically conservative. Both sides stayed up because they did not lose matches they should have drawn.
The promoted Serie A sides that finish top half, like Hellas Verona in 2019-20 or Como in 2024-25, are unusual. They arrive with a tactical system good enough to beat the mid-table sides and organised enough to limit the top sides.
The full six-season record
For readers who want the complete promoted-sides table across all five leagues, this is the consolidated data:
Premier League (18 promoted, 7 survived)
| Season | Promoted | Position | Survived? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Norwich City / Sheffield United / Aston Villa | 20 / 9 / 17 | No / Yes / Yes |
| 2020-21 | Leeds United / West Brom / Fulham | 9 / 19 / 18 | Yes / No / No |
| 2021-22 | Norwich City / Watford / Brentford | 20 / 19 / 13 | No / No / Yes |
| 2022-23 | Fulham / Bournemouth / Nottingham Forest | 10 / 15 / 16 | Yes / Yes / Yes |
| 2023-24 | Burnley / Sheffield United / Luton Town | 19 / 20 / 18 | No / No / No |
| 2024-25 | Leicester City / Ipswich Town / Southampton | 18 / 19 / 20 | No / No / No |
La Liga (18 promoted, 12 survived)
| Season | Promoted | Position | Survived? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Huesca / Cádiz / Elche | 18 / 12 / 17 | No / Yes / Yes |
| 2020-21 | Espanyol / Mallorca / Rayo Vallecano | 14 / 16 / 12 | Yes / Yes / Yes |
| 2021-22 | Almería / Valladolid / Girona | 17 / 18 / 10 | Yes / No / Yes |
| 2022-23 | Granada / Las Palmas / Alavés | 20 / 16 / 10 | No / Yes / Yes |
| 2023-24 | Granada / Las Palmas / Alavés | 20 / 16 / 10 | No / Yes / Yes |
| 2024-25 | Valladolid / Leganés / Espanyol | 20 / 18 / 14 | No / No / Yes |
Serie A (18 promoted, 10 survived)
| Season | Promoted | Position | Survived? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Brescia / Lecce / Hellas Verona | 19 / 18 / 9 | No / No / Yes |
| 2020-21 | Benevento / Crotone / Spezia | 18 / 19 / 15 | No / No / Yes |
| 2021-22 | Venezia / Salernitana / Empoli | 20 / 17 / 14 | No / Yes / Yes |
| 2022-23 | Frosinone / Genoa / Cagliari | 18 / 11 / 16 | No / Yes / Yes |
| 2023-24 | Frosinone / Genoa / Cagliari | 18 / 11 / 16 | No / Yes / Yes |
| 2024-25 | Parma / Venezia / Como | 16 / 19 / 10 | Yes / No / Yes |
Bundesliga (12 promoted, 8 survived)
| Season | Promoted | Position | Survived? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Paderborn / Köln / Union Berlin | 18 / 14 / 11 | No / Yes / Yes |
| 2020-21 | Arminia Bielefeld / VfB Stuttgart | 15 / 9 | Yes / Yes |
| 2021-22 | VfL Bochum / Greuther Fürth | 13 / 18 | Yes / No |
| 2022-23 | Schalke 04 / Werder Bremen | 17 / 13 | No / Yes |
| 2023-24 | 1. FC Heidenheim / Darmstadt 98 | 8 / 18 | Yes / No |
| 2024-25 | Holstein Kiel / St. Pauli | 17 / 14 | No / Yes |
Ligue 1 (14 promoted, 10 survived)
| Season | Promoted | Position | Survived? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Metz / Brest | 15 / 14 | Yes / Yes |
| 2020-21 | Lorient / Lens | 16 / 7 | Yes / Yes |
| 2021-22 | Troyes / Clermont | 15 / 17 | Yes / Yes |
| 2022-23 | Toulouse / Ajaccio / Auxerre | 13 / 18 / 17 | Yes / No / No |
| 2023-24 | Le Havre / Metz | 15 / 16 | Yes / No |
| 2024-25 | Auxerre / Angers / Saint-Étienne | 11 / 14 / 17 | Yes / Yes / No |
What the data says about league structure
The promoted-side survival rate is one of the cleanest measures of league structure. It captures how hostile a league is to new arrivals. It captures the gap between the top flight and the second tier. It captures the fixture load, the draw rate, the points threshold to survive, and the depth of the mid-table.
The Premier League’s 38.9 per cent survival rate is the structural price of being the deepest mid-table in Europe. Ligue 1’s 71.4 per cent is the structural price of a single dominant side. La Liga and the Bundesliga at 66.7 per cent sit in the middle. Serie A at 55.6 per cent is dragged down by its draw rate and the points threshold to survive.
For a model covering promoted sides, the survival probability has to be calibrated by league. A 60 per cent survival probability for a promoted side in Ligue 1 is reasonable. The same 60 per cent for a promoted side in the Premier League is overconfident by 20 percentage points.
What this means for the next promoted sides
The promoted sides for 2025-26 face structural pressure from the leagues they arrive in. The Premier League’s three promoted sides will probably see two go down. La Liga’s three will probably see one go down. Serie A’s three will probably see one go down. The Bundesliga’s two will probably see one go down, often through the relegation playoff. Ligue 1’s three will probably see one go down.
That is the baseline expectation. Outlier finishes, like Heidenheim’s 8th in 2023-24 or Como’s 10th in 2024-25, happen roughly once per league per two seasons. They happen because of structural preparation, not because of luck.
The graveyard pattern in the Premier League is real. The kinder pattern in Ligue 1 is real. The structural reasons for both are stable.
For a reader following the Big Five, the promoted-side tracker is the cleanest single place to see how each league absorbs its new arrivals. The data is straightforward. The structural reasons behind the data are not.